The National Oceans and Atmosphere Administration (NOAA) forecasters, who monitor oceanic and atmospheric patterns, announced New Hurricane Season Forecast 2019 on Thursday, August 8. The that conditions are now more favorable for hurricane activity than above normal because El Nino has disappeared.
Already two storms have formed so far this year and the peak months of the hurricane season, from August to October.
“NOAA will continue to deliver the information on which the public depends before, during and after any storm during hurricane season,” said Neil Jacobs, Ph.D., acting administrator of NOAA.
“Our next-generation satellites, advanced weather models, hurricane fighters and the experience of our forecasters. We prepared to keep communities informed to help save lives and livelihoods.”
Seasonal forecasters with the NOAA Climate Prediction Center have increased the probability of a hurricane season in the Atlantic above normal to 45% (compared to 30% of the forecast issued in May).
The probability of almost normal activity is now 35%, and the probability of activity below normal has been reduced to 20%.
The expected number of storms is also higher. NOAA now expects 10-17 named storms (winds of 39 mph or more). 5-9 will become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or more). Including 2 -4 major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or more).
This updated outlook is for the entire six-month hurricane season. It ends on November 30.
NOAA also announced Thursday that the current El Nino in the Pacific Ocean has ended. It’s now neutral conditions.
“El Nino typically suppresses hurricane activity in the Atlantic, but now that it is gone, we could see a hectic season going forward,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D.
The lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center of NOAA “This evolution, combined with the most favorable conditions associated with the era of ongoing high activity for the Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995, increases the likelihood of activity above normal this year.”
On average, the Atlantic hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
The NOAA hurricane season forecast is for general seasonal activity and is not a forecast to land. The arrival on land largely determined by short-term weather patterns. It is only predictable within a week after a storm potentially reaches the coast.
“Today’s updated forecast is a reminder to be prepared,” said Pete Gaynor, interim administrator of FEMA.
“We urge everyone to learn more about the dangers of hurricanes and prepare now, in advance, so that if state and local authorities announce evacuations before a storm, you and your family will have planned where to go and what to do to stay safe”.
NOAA encourages residents of areas. hurricanes may be affected by land. To ensure that their preparedness is in effect now.
We remind you of some things you should do and important facts before or during a hurricane alert:
At the warning of a hurricane:
Instantly install shutters or wooden planks to protect doors and windows.
Fill your car tank with gasoline.
Have cash for several days.
Store drinking water in clean tubs for cleaning. And for consumption in jugs, bottles and other containers.
Immediately pick up objects outside your homes. Such as furniture, toys, and gardening tools. They can become dangerous projectiles.
Review the disaster plan with your family.
By Radio: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (162.55 MHz, Broward, and Miami-Dade); 162,475 MHz (East of Palm Beach); 162.40 MHz (West of Palm Beach)
If a hurricane alert is issued, you may feel the storm in the next 36 hours. If you plan to go to a shelter. Listen to the radio or watch TV to find out which shelters open.